"Growth is expected to moderate gradually in China... pick up in India, and remain broadly stable in the Asean-5 region."
Softening inflation, Das said would make available more policy space to the central bank to address risks to the growth going forward.
According to Fitch rupee is expected to weaken to 72 to a dollar by the end of December 2019, and further to 73 by December 2020, from 69.82 to a dollar in end December 2018.
Fitch Ratings on Wednesday cut India's growth forecast to 10 per cent for the current fiscal, from 12.8 per cent estimated earlier, due to slowing recovery post second wave of COVID-19, and said rapid vaccination could support a sustainable revival in business and consumer confidence. In a report, the global rating agency said the challenges for banking sector posed by the coronavirus pandemic have increased due to a virulent second wave in the first quarter of the financial year ending March 2022 (FY22). "Fitch Ratings revised down India's real GDP for FY22 by 280bp to 10 per cent, underlining our belief that renewed restrictions have slowed recovery efforts and left banks with a moderately worse outlook for business and revenue generation in FY22," it said. Fitch believes that rapid vaccination could support a sustainable revival in business and consumer confidence; however, without it, economic recovery would remain vulnerable to further waves and lockdowns.
More and more PE players are willing to test the waters now, just in case they become early entrants in a future booming business.
Prime Minister Modi, who is in Japan on a two-day visit to attend a summit of the Quad leaders at the invitation of his Japanese counterpart Fumio Kishida, penned an op-ed on the vibrant relations between India and Japan in the Yomiuri Shimbun.
IMF Chief Economist Gita Gopinath also said the pickup in global growth for 2020 remains highly uncertain as it relies on improved growth outcomes for stressed economies like Argentina, Iran, and Turkey and for under-performing emerging and developing economies such as Brazil, India, and Mexico.
Despite lay-offs and the threat of automation, the industry will continue to be an important driver of growth in employment and GDP, says Ashok Soota.
An improvement in political relations, anchored in a restoration of peace and tranquillity at the border, could open up opportunities for expanded economic and commercial relations between them, suggests former foreign secretary Ambassador Shyam Saran.
China, it said, is projected to grow at 6.6 per cent in the current year which will moderate to 6.4 per cent next year.
In Q1, India's GDP shrank by a staggering 24 per cent year-on-year amid the imposition of one of the most stringent global nationwide lockdowns.
While India's GDP is pegged at 7.7%, China is projected to grow at 7%.
Fitch Solutions on Thursday said the new climate targets announced at the COP26 summit by Prime minister Narendra Modi pose an upside risk to its outlook for renewable growth in the country. With the new targets, it expected to see attempts to alleviate the issues regarding supply chains, manufacturing and project development that have long plagued renewable proliferation.
There is so much liquidity in the system, in the global economy, and that's why the stock market is very buoyant. It will certainly witness correction in the future: RBI's Das.
'We should look at is full year's growth rather than quarter numbers.'
In a tightening cycle, a premature pause in monetary policy action would be a costly policy error, Reserve Bank Governor Shaktikanta Das opined while voting along with five other members of the MPC for raising the key lending rate by 35 basis points earlier this month, according to the minutes of the meeting released on Wednesday. Prior to the December hike in repo rate, the RBI had raised the key short-term lending rate by 190 bps in four tranche.
It had upped India's rating to Baa2 from Baa3 and changed its rating outlook to 'stable' from 'positive', saying the reforms would help stabilise rising levels of debt.
The upward revision in growth forecast for current fiscal comes in the backdrop of GDP expanding 8.2 per cent in April-June quarter, higher than Fitch's expectation of 7.7 per cent.
Chief Economic Adviser V Anantha Nageswaran on Thursday said cryptocurrencies are akin to 'a world of Caribbean pirates' in the absence of a centralised regulatory authority and are yet to pass the test of a fiat currency. He said that the government is pursuing a 'high-wire balancing act' to ensure that the gains in growth, inflation, and rupee stability of the last four years are not frittered away. He said the recent development in Terra-Luna cryptocurrency, which witnessed a massive meltdown last month, is a 'very important cautionary tale'.
The economic impact of the Omicron variant of COVID-19 on emerging economies will depend on a mix of government restrictions, public comfort with social interactions, and capacity of governments and central banks to provide additional policy support to the private sector, Moody's Investors Service said on Wednesday. The emergence of the new variant poses new risks to the global economic growth and inflation outlook, as concerns mount about the variant's health risks and several countries have imposed new travel restrictions in recent days. These restrictions will likely increase over the coming weeks until scientists learn more about the variant, it said.
The finance ministry said on Tuesday that high energy and commodity prices due to the Russian invasion of Ukraine may provide an upside risk to inflation and continued vigil is required. "Going forward, elevated energy and commodity prices may act as an upside risk to the inflation outlook in the near-medium term. "Given the inherently unsustainable nature of high prices, international commodity prices are expected to level off early with an increase in supplies outside the crisis zone," the department of economic affairs said in its latest monthly economic report for February.
It came as a surprise to all stakeholders - competing telecom companies (telcos), most analysts and even the government's internal projections on revenues from the 5G auctions. Reliance Jio disrupted all calculations by paying a stiff Rs 40,000 crore to buy 10 MHz of spectrum in the 700-MHz band, globally considered a key band for efficient 5G service coverage, along with the default 3.5 GHz band and the ultra-high speed and low-latency millimetre band of 26 GHz band. So what made Jio pay almost 45 per cent of its total spend in this auction for the 700 MHz band - much more than what it rustled up even for the 3.5 GHz band?
However, the Indian economy is expected to bounce back in 2021, the World Bank said.
'Enterprises have become more demanding in terms of their productivity expectation from their employees.'
Facebook's parent company Meta announced on Tuesday it will fire another 10,000 people, implementing a second round of jobs cuts after it slashed 11,000 positions in November last year, to improve its financial performance in a "difficult environment". Meta founder Mark Zuckerberg said in a post that overall "we expect to reduce our team size by around 10,000 people and to close around 5,000 additional open roles that we haven't yet hired." The company has said that in its "Year of Efficiency", the company aims to make itself "a better technology company and to improve our financial performance in a difficult environment so we can execute our long-term vision."
On food inflation, RBI said it is likely to soften from the high levels registered in December and the decline is expected to become more pronounced during the fourth quarter of this fiscal as onion prices ease following arrivals of late kharif and rabi harvests.
Moody's on Monday slashed India's growth forecast for 2020 to 5.4 per cent from 6.6 per cent projected earlier, on slower than expected economic recovery. In its update on Global Macro Outlook, Moody's Investors Service said India's economy has decelerated rapidly over the last 2 years and economic recovery is likely to be 'shallow'.
The global agricultural production growth is expected to be low at 1.7 per cent annually during 2011-20 as compared to 2.6 per cent in the previous decade, due to lower growth in oilseeds and cereals, an agri survey said.
Moody's Investors Service on Friday projected India's growth at zero per cent for the current fiscal and said the negative outlook on sovereign rating reflects increasing risks that GDP growth will remain significantly lower than in the past. The outlook also partly shows weaker policy effectiveness to address economic and institutional issues, it noted in the update to its November 2019 rating forecast.
India's GDP growth for the current fiscal is expected to slow down to 4.8 per cent, a UN report has said, warning that the Covid-19 pandemic is expected to result in significant adverse economic impacts globally. The UN 'Economic and Social Survey of Asia and the Pacific (ESCAP) 2020: Towards sustainable economies' said that Covid-19 is having far-reaching economic and social consequences for the region, with strong cross-border spillover effects through trade, tourism and financial linkages.
India will catch up with China's growth at 7 per cent during 2016-17, the World Bank has forecast, saying India's economy has recovered in the wake of the economic reform measures taken by the new Indian government, falling oil prices and lower interest rates.
Optimism comes at a time when several agencies trimmed forecast to as low as 5.5% citing inaction policy paralysis as major growth impediment
Growth forecast has been lowered owing to tepid growth in the first half of 2017-18, the lingering effects of demonetisation, transitory challenges of GST, and some risks to agriculture stemming from a spotty monsoon.
From the 30-share Sensex pack, 23 scrips declined in Wednesday's session, led by IndusInd Bank, Bajaj Finance, Tata Motors and Tata Steel which fell by up to 3.87 per cent.
While the collapse of a large financial intermediary can wreak havoc on the system because of the interconnectivity, a large business conglomerate too can play spoilsport if the banks have too much exposure to the entity, explains Tamal Bandyopadhyay.
Flush with liquidity, banks are eager to lend. And, therein lies the problem, warns Tamal Bandyopadhyay.
'No Cold War should be reignited and no Ukraine-style crisis should be repeated in Asia'
Global rating agency Fitch has revised upwards India's growth projection to 6 from 5 per cent for the current fiscal and said the recent election results should provide additional confidence and spur growth.
S&P Global Ratings on Wednesday said the second wave of COVID infections poses downside risks to India's GDP and heightens the possibility of business disruptions. The second wave brings in uncertainty and a drawn-out COVID outbreak will impede India's recovery, it said.
Retail inflation fell to a 15-month low of 5.66 per cent in March, mainly due to a decline in food prices, government data showed on Wednesday. The inflation figure in March is within the RBI's comfort zone as it is below 6 per cent. The retail inflation based on Consumer Price Index (CPI) was 6.44 per cent in February 2023 and 6.95 per cent in the year-ago period.
